Seahawks at 5-4: Playoff Odds Near a Coin Flip as Seattle Heads to Las Vegas

Halfway through their title defense, the Seattle Seahawks are about as close to a coin flip for the postseason as a team can be. In a Pre-Snap Reads piece for SB Nation, Field Gulls' Terrance Robinson took up the question this week, and the numbers that are out there point to a race that will go down to the wire.

Seattle Sports reports that The Athletic's playoff simulator gives Seattle a 50 percent chance of reaching the postseason. That figure breaks down to an 8 percent chance of winning the NFC West and 42 percent for a wild-card berth. It ranks seventh in the NFC, which would be the final playoff spot. The Los Angeles Rams are right behind at 40 percent. Seattle and Los Angeles are both 5-4, and Dallas is in the mix at 4-5. San Francisco is 7-1 and has made the division a long shot. Seattle Sports also reported that the Seahawks expect Drew Lock to start at quarterback against the Raiders.

The 5-4 record hides a stronger team. Seattle has outscored opponents 202-162, a margin of plus-40 that usually belongs to a team with a better record. Three of the four losses came by a field goal or less: 17-14 at Denver, 32-29 to San Francisco and 33-31 at Washington. The only lopsided loss was the 34-17 defeat to Chicago, and the defense allowed 3 points in the games on either side of it, against Kansas City and Arizona. The concern for a team chasing a wild card is that it is 1-2 on the road, with its lone road win coming at Arizona. At Lumen Field it is 4-2.

That is why close games will decide this. Turning even one of those narrow losses into a win would have put Seattle in a much more comfortable spot. From here, the Seahawks have little room for error, particularly with the Rams level with them in the standings.

What it means for Sunday in Las Vegas

The next game, at the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday, Nov. 15 on CBS, is the kind a team in the last playoff spot cannot afford to drop. The market sees it that way too. Seattle is a 6.5-point favorite at all 12 venues on this site's board, and its moneyline at Novig is -264, which returns $37.88 per $100. The Raiders are +257 there.

On the spread, Novig lists Seattle -6.5 at -106. FanDuel has the best price anywhere at -105, so the gap between venues is small on a line that every venue agrees on. Sportsbook hold on the spread runs from 2.9 to 4.8 percent. The total is 40.5, and Novig prices both the over and the under at -104. That fits a Seattle defense that has held two of its last three opponents to a field goal.

A road win would cut into the 1-2 record away from home. A loss would leave the Seahawks level with or behind the Rams, with the second half of the schedule still to come. Season results and prices are tracked on the Seahawks team page.