Seahawks at midseason: elite defense, sputtering offense and a coin-flip playoff path

The defending Super Bowl champions reach the halfway mark at 5-4, and the numbers show a team whose defense is carrying the load. In ESPN's midseason report, Seattle sits 13th in the Football Power Index with a 47.2% chance to make the playoffs. Its odds of winning the NFC West are only 3.2%, with San Francisco at 7-1 and an FPI projection near 95% to take the division.

ESPN's Brady Henderson describes a split roster. The offense ranks 15th at 22.4 points per game under first-time coordinator Brian Fleury, while the defense ranks third in points allowed. The quarterback numbers stand out. Sam Darnold has a 49.2 Total QBR and nine interceptions in six games since returning from a glute injury. Drew Lock has posted an 84.4 QBR across three appearances, two of them starts against a weak Arizona defense. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the league with a 36% target share and accounts for half of Seattle's receiving yards.

Darnold, now dealing with quad and rib injuries, will miss Sunday's game. Coach Mike Macdonald said Lock is expected to start despite an oblique injury that sent him to the medical tent against Arizona, according to CBS Sports and Yahoo Sports. CBS reported that Darnold remains the starter once he is healthy. Seattle's bye follows the Las Vegas trip, so Darnold, guard Quenton Nelson (knee) and running backs Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price could all be closer to full strength for the stretch run.

What it means for Las Vegas

Seattle's season has been uneven. The Seahawks are 4-2 at home and 1-2 on the road, and they are 2-3 in one-score games. Three of their four losses came by three points or fewer: 33-31 at Washington, 32-29 to San Francisco and 17-14 at Denver. The last month has followed the same pattern. They beat Kansas City 20-3, lost 34-17 to Chicago and then beat Arizona 17-3, so the defense has held two of its last three opponents to a field goal. Across nine games Seattle has scored 202 points and allowed 162.

The Raiders, under first-year coach Klint Kubiak, rank eighth in scoring, per ESPN. They have done it without a running game, sitting 31st in rushing yards per game. Sunday's game on CBS will also be the first career start for No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, who took over after Las Vegas traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota at the deadline. ESPN gives the Raiders a 7.0% chance to make the playoffs.

Across the 12 venues on our board, Seattle is favored by 6.5 points. Novig prices Seattle -6.5 at -108 and Las Vegas +6.5 at +104. The best price anywhere on the Seahawks side is FanDuel's -105 at the same number. On the moneyline, Novig has Seattle at -264 and the Raiders at +257. The total sits at 40.5, with both sides at -104 on Novig, which fits a matchup between a top-three scoring defense and a rookie quarterback. The sportsbooks are close to one another, with hold ranging from 2.9% to 4.8% on the spread and from 3.4% to 4.9% on the moneyline.

More on the season is on our Seahawks team page.