Seahawks at 5-4: How Many Wins Will Seattle Need to Reach the Playoffs?
Seattle is 5-4 and outside the NFC field. The Seahawks weigh the playoff math ahead of a trip to Las Vegas, where they are favored.
Seattle beat Arizona 17-3 to get back above .500, but the Seahawks are still on the outside of the NFC playoff field. At 5-4, the defending champions are chasing the final wild-card spot. SB Nation's Field Gulls has asked its readers how many wins it will take to get in. Mookie Alexander points out that Seattle can finish no better than 13-4, and that even that record does not mathematically guarantee a berth.
The problem is the NFC North. All four teams in that division are in the playoff race, and Alexander notes that the North could take all three wild-card spots. As he put it, "6-3 gets you last place in the division." Fox Sports has Green Bay in the last wild-card spot after Week 9, with Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams both a step behind at 5-4. The Rams have won three straight. Yahoo Sports lists Seattle first among the NFC teams in the hunt. San Francisco leads the NFC West and holds the top seed in the Fox projection.
The Field Gulls survey gives readers a range of answers, from nine wins up to running the table. With eight games left, 10 wins would mean going 5-3 the rest of the way, and 11 would mean 6-2. Seattle's record so far suggests either would be a stretch. The Seahawks have not won two games in a row since the opening two weeks, when they beat New England 13-10 and won 31-7 at Arizona. Since then they have alternated wins and losses, except for back-to-back losses to Denver and San Francisco. They have lost close games, too: 31-33 at Washington, 29-32 to the 49ers and 14-17 at Denver. Three plays going the other way and this would be a different survey.
What it means for Sunday in Las Vegas
The next chance to string wins together comes Sunday, November 15, at the Las Vegas Raiders on CBS. The bye follows, and then Seattle travels to San Francisco on November 29. Going into the bye at 6-4 would put the Seahawks on equal footing with the North's chasers before a division game that could decide whether the NFC West is still in play.
The defense has looked more like a strength lately. Arizona managed just three points last week, and so did Kansas City two weeks earlier. The outlier was the 34 points Chicago scored on Seattle between those games.
Across the 11 venues on this site's board, Seattle is a clear favorite. Novig has the Seahawks at -270 on the moneyline and the Raiders at +257. Seattle is favored by 6.5 points at -106 on Novig's spread, with Las Vegas +6.5 at +102. The total sits at 40.5 on Novig, with the over at -104 and the under at +102. Hard Rock Bet has the best under price on the board at 41 points, priced at -115. The sportsbooks are fairly close on this game. Hold runs from 3.6% to 4.9% on the moneyline and from 4.3% to 5.0% on the total.
A total near 40 fits a Seattle team that has played several low-scoring games. If the Seahawks win as favored, they would have their first winning streak since September, and that would help answer the question Field Gulls is putting to its readers. More on the season is on our Seahawks team page.